The second option Brucy!
I believe the death rate wil continue to drop untill the reservoir of
old and vulnerable people gets smaller and smaller?
Once they are gone it will then stabilize to a lower ratio of deaths
to infections, possibly around 1% depending on how survivors
behave!
Dont forget that there is a large percentage, of people that will
never get infected and so are not reflected in any graphs or
percentage figures which are consequently always skewed towards
a more pessimistic forecast?
People like those don’t care one bit about anyone else. I realize that it is a bit draconian, but for the good of society as a whole, the police need to use tear gas, pepper spray and rubber bullets to disperse those young idiots. Too many innocent lives are at stake to treat them with kid-gloves.
Blimey Donkeyman, from a population of over 68 million people that’s going to be quite a large reservoir…It may take some time…
And not all fatalities are old and vulnerable, there are some very old people who have weathered the coronavirus storm and have survived…
Incidentally…What happens to viruses in the summer? You never hear of anyone getting vaccinated for the summer flu…And nobody seems to catch it in the summer…Perhaps viruses don’t like sunshine, or Vit D…
Even with the most pessimistic mortality rate for the over 70s you still stand an 85% change of surviving this.
There was a very interesting interview from a Pommie Specialist of something medical on the ABC 7.30 this evening when he was asked to describe the effect of Covid-19 on patients.
He said Covid19 is as similar to flu as Ebola is to an ingrowing toenail (exact quote)
He said a lot of people have a very mild symptom similar to a cold and recover quickly but in a few cases after day 10 they have very low oxygen levels in the blood and require oxygen. They are going blue without even being aware that they are panting or breathless.
It appears that the blood entering the lungs loaded with carbon dioxide is leaving the lungs in the same state. Covid-19 doesn’t appear to be a lung tissue disease like the flu at all but a blood/circulation disease.
I think that is a fairly accurate summary of what he said as I understood it. Quite different to what we expected isn’t it?
Anyway here is the full interview so you can get the real story. Well worth watching
