So can a vaccine actually bring back normal?
Despite the scientific and practical challenges of delivering an effective vaccine accross the UK and also the world, the good news is that it looks likely the first-generation vaccines will have a significant impact on the global battle against Covid-19.
In the short term they will help prevent the most vulnerable in our communities from developing severe disease and dying, especially older people with pre-existing conditions and front-line health workers.
Pfizer/BioNTech’s announcement that their vaccine appears to protect 94% of adults over 65 years old is an important boost to this work.
The bad news is that it could well take months or possibly years to vaccinate enough of the global population to make the whole interconnected world safe and reach a point where we can all return to full normal.
Era of ‘vaccine plus’
Suggestions that vaccines will be able to take us back to where we were pre-Covid by Easter next year have given people an unrealistic expectation, says Prof Salisbury, and such an outcome, in the absence of the interruption of transmission, is “unlikely”.
Even countries with strong health infrastructure and experience of mass vaccination programmes - like the UK - will find reaching enough people to break the chain of transmission a challenge, he says.
While the outlook for at-risk groups will be “undoubtedly brighter” next year, Prof Salisbury says, the rest of us look likely to be taking extra measures for some time to come, something he refers to as “vaccine plus”.
Prof Ghani agrees and estimates it will take two more years to “to get the whole world back to normal”, but with the process likely to be quicker for high-income countries like the UK.
But she warns that while vaccines will ultimately end the pandemic, they will not “get rid of the virus” and the world will need to “keep vaccinating” just as it does with other diseases.
So with a new era of “vaccine plus” possibly now dawning in the battle against Covid-19, 2021 is likely to require us to continue to dig deep for a number of months to come - and possibly beyond.
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