Chancellor Jeremy Hunt did not give many hints about exactly how he’s going to bring the economy under control in Thursday’s Autumn Statement but here are a few take aways from his Laura Kuenssberg interview.
- Everyone is going to pay more tax
- We are going to see spending cuts
- The government will continue to support people with their energy bills
The devil will be in the detail … 
Any hints as to the pensions lock? Either way, this is going to hurt.
Black Thursday … 
God help us!
12 years of Tory mismanagement, but don’t worry, hunt is going to fix it….
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to unveil spending cuts and tax rises to fill a gap in the UK’s finances.
Mr Sunak said he was fixing errors made by his predecessor Liz Truss, whose mini-budget left markets reeling.
Speaking to reporters on a plane to the G20 summit in Indonesia - his second foreign trip as PM - Mr Sunak said “financial conditions in the UK have stabilised, clearly”.
He said to maintain that stability, “delivering on the expectations of international markets” and making sure “our fiscal position is on a more sustainable trajectory” were crucial.
“And that’s what we will do,” in the autumn statement, he said.
The proof will be in the pudding … 
We (forum members) have been through scores of budgets, has there every been a budget where we came out of it richer or happier?
We will be taxed more than last year and more than the preceding scores of years. And it doesn’t matter who is in power.
UK income tax has changed over the years. The highest rate of income tax peaked in the Second World War at 99.25%. It was then slightly reduced and was around 90% through the 1950s and 60s.
In 1971 the top rate of income tax on earned income was cut to 75%. A surcharge of 15% kept the top rate on investment income at 90%. In 1974 the cut was partly reversed and the top rate on earned income was raised to 83%. With the investment income surcharge this raised the top rate on investment income to 98%, the highest permanent rate since the war. This applied to incomes over £20,000 (£221,741 as of 2021).
The Government of Margaret Thatcher, who favoured taxation on consumption, reduced personal income tax rates during the 1980s in favour of indirect taxation. In the first budget after her election victory in 1979, the top rate was reduced from 83% to 60% and the basic rate from 33% to 30%. The basic rate was also cut for three successive budgets – to 29% in the 1986 budget, 27% in 1987 and to 25% in 1988; The top rate of income tax was cut to 40%. The investment income surcharge was abolished in 1985.
Under the government of John Major the basic rate was reduced in stages to 23% by 1997.
Under Labour chancellor Gordon Brown, the basic rate of income tax was further reduced in stages to 20% by 2007.
Jeremy Hunt is expected to dismantle much of what his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng announced in his mini-budget on 23 September.
The Treasury say nothing confirmed until the statement is announced. But we do know some of what is likely to be announced.
Spending cuts v tax rises
After the uncertainty of the last few weeks, Mr Hunt said he wants to reduce the size of the so-called fiscal black hole - the gap between what the government raises and spends. This will involve political choices about how much debt is acceptable, what taxes can go up and what spending can be squeezed.
The exact level of spending cuts and tax increase changes based on different decisions being signed off. But the accepted wisdom in the Treasury is that there will be more spending cuts than tax rises. This is likely to mean spending cuts of about £35bn and tax rises of around £20bn.
Stealth taxes
For the last few weeks, the Treasury has been discussing a wide range of tax thresholds which could be frozen. But because of inflation and pay increases, this involves people paying more tax because more of their money qualifies for a given tax band.
The final plans are still be signed off, but the signs are that this could be used pretty widely. Income tax bands are likely to be frozen until 2028 - it’s also likely that threshold at which people start paying the 45p tax rate could be reduced to £125,000. That’s quite a turnaround from the days of Liz Truss and Mr Kwarteng wanted to scrap the additional rate altogether.
Energy bills
The government is worried about the cost of the “energy price guarantee”. There will be a more targeted approach from April.
It’s expected the chancellor will still announce a cap of some sort on Thursday, but it will mean bills going up for a lot of people. There is likely to be support for certain groups like those on low incomes and pensioners.
Windfall tax
Rishi Sunak introduced the Windfall Tax on the profits of oil and gas companies when he was chancellor. But ever since, there have been calls for it to be extended, both in timescale and scope.
This is another revenue raiser which looks likely, the question is how. Treasury officials have been exploring increasing the rate of the tax to 35%, extending the time frame the windfall tax applies for and bringing electricity generators into the scope.
Social care
It is expected that on Thursday, the chancellor will postpone the introduction of the social care cap for at least two years - roughly the period covered by the spending review. That would kick the decision until after a general election and opens the door to the cap being scrapped altogether.
Triple lock and benefits
This is one of the biggest spending decisions the Treasury has been weighing up. Should pensions and benefits go up by the rate of inflation, despite the rate being extremely high at the moment?
Nobody in government will confirm this, but the mood music is both are likely to happen.
The government committed to the pensions triple lock in its manifesto, something which the prime minister has talked a lot about. The triple lock is popular with Conservative voters. And if the prime minister decided not to follow it, he would risk a rebellion among Tory MPs.
The same is true on benefits. Ms Truss faced a lot of pressure to commit to uprating benefits in line with inflation. Among those pressing her were some senior MPs who are now in Mr Sunak’s cabinet, including Michael Gove and Mel Stride.
And it was Mr Sunak as chancellor who promised earlier this year the benefits increase would be in line with inflation. He would face a lot of political flack if he changed his mind, despite the changing economic picture.
So, it may not be all bad … 
The BBC has spoken to people in Whitehall and Parliament about what is likely to be in Mr Hunt’s Autumn Statement, although some decisions could change at the last minute.
The final figures will be published as the statement is delivered but it is expected that around 55% of the measures will be spending cuts and 45% will be tax rises. This is likely to equate to around £30bn in spending cuts and £24bn in tax rises.
All will be revealed … shortly … 
I’ve been trying to figure out how much of the coffers have been depleted by the criminal damage as a result of the Truss premiership. Are we paying for her mistakes? I haven’t had time to read up on it properly but it certainly feels as though that is a significant contributory factor.
It’s all about stability on the global.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has appeared outside of Number 11 Downing Street, holding a big, green folder.
He will now make his way to the House of Commons to deliver his Autumn Statement in front of MPs.
Typically, the chancellor will pose for press with a red ministerial briefcase, or “box”, ahead of a Budget. But of course, this has been described as an Autumn Statement, rather than a full-blown Budget, where Hunt will provide an update on the government’s plans for the economy.
“Holding a big green folder”
If what he is holding is the one they refer to, it doesn’t look very informative 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-63591754
No sign of Liz Truss in Commons
It’s still only really a matter of weeks since Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini-budget” .
Former PMs Boris Johnson and Theresa May are in the chamber, but no sign yet of Liz Truss.
More people to pay top rate of income tax
The chancellor says the threshold for when the highest earners start paying the top rate of tax will also be brought down from £150,000 to £125,000.
Energy firms profits targeted with expanded windfall tax
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has confirmed that the energy industry will be hit with an expanded windfall tax of 35% up from 25%.
Motoring tax system to be made ‘fairer’
The Chancellor has announced electric vehicles will no longer be exempt from Vehicle Excise Duty from April 2025 to make the motoring tax system “fairer”.
The income tax personal allowance threshold will be frozen until 2028
This means millions of people will end up paying more in tax.
Freezing the thresholds means that tax bands will stay the same, even as people’s pay goes up. So as wages rise, the proportion of earnings that we pay tax on will increase, and more people will move into higher tax brackets. The thresholds were already frozen until 2026.
Spending squeeze on government departments - except health
Jeremy Hunt has confirmed that there will be spending squeezes on government departments. He says that they will have to take “tough decisions to deal with inflationary pressures in the next two years”.
The health budget will be protected though - and the chancellor said a strong NHS was at the heart of the prime minister’s vision for the country.
Hunt says he is committed to helping people raise their income, find work and become financially independent.
To this end, he announces he will ask over 600,000 more people on universal credit to meet with work coaches “so they can get the support they need to increase their work hours or earnings.”
Hunt says another £280m will be invested to help the Department of Work and Pensions to crack down on benefit fraud and errors in the next two years.
The government’s review on the pension age will also be published in early 2023, he adds.
Hunt says in 2023 and 2024 the government will invest an extra £2.2bn in schools.
Hunt says schools and the NHS in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also face pressure.
He promises an extra £1.5bn funding for the Scottish government, £1.2bn for the Welsh government and £650m for the Northern Ireland executive for “next year, the year after, and every year thereafter.”
Sizewell C nuclear plant going ahead
Jeremy Hunt says contracts will be signed in the coming weeks to get the Sizewell C nuclear plant in the south east of England off the ground.
Sizewell C is expected to provide up to 7% of the UK’s total electricity needs, but critics have argued it will be expensive and take years to build.
The plant is not expected to begin generating electricity until the 2030s.
Northern Powerhouse rail and HS2 to go ahead
Hunt goes on to confirm that rail projects will go ahead as planned: the Northern Powerhouse rail, the HS2 and the East West Rail.
Millions set to pay more for energy from April
Help for energy bills will be extended, but it will be less generous, Hunt confirms.
This means millions of households will see their energy bills go up by hundreds of pounds a year from April.
Pensions to rise by 10.1% from April
Hunt confirms that pensions will rise in line with September’s inflation rate of 10.1%.
Benefits to rise in line with inflation (10.1%)
The chancellor says means-tested benefits, including Universal Credit, will also rise in line with September’s inflation figure of 10.1% from next April.
By law, some disability benefits must rise in line with inflation each year anyway.
National Living Wage to rise
The chancellor has confirmed that the National Living Wage will be increased from £9.50 an hour for over-23s to £10.42 from April next year.
The National Living Wage goes up every April, boosting the pay of around about two million people. But the new rates are announced months in advance, to allow firms to prepare.
Targeted support for cost of living
The chancellor announces there will be targeted support with the cost of living for those on low incomes, disability benefits and pensioners.
Additional payments of £900 will be paid to those on means-tested benefits, £300 to pensioner households and £150 to people on disability benefits.
Rent rises in social rented sector capped
The chancellor has also said that rent increases in the social rented sector will be capped at 7% in the next financial year.
Hunt has now finished outlining the government’s intentions and, it seems, the plan has, at least, been thought through and appears (to a greater or lesser extent) logical.
TBH, I did not expect the full increase for pensioners and those on benefits … 
Why the rail projects are being continued is beyond me though … 
I am, of course, delighted about the increased windfall tax … 
Thanks for the synopsis @Omah.
Listened briefly to the start of Labour’s response before I gave up. Pretty predictable generic stuff (up to the moment I turned off, anyway). Does the opposition and the media get to read the statement beforehand for it to make insightful responses?
AFAIK … no … they have to make best guesses and think on their feet … 
Good Speech
He mentions Nigel Lawson. And I noticed earlier JH has a pic of him on his wall.
Looks were obviously deceptive … 
