Or deaths per 100k of population.
Yes, where as infection per 100k of population can only be surmised.
Whilst l can see it is possible to get an idea of whether we are
succeeding in beating the epidemic by using the death rate marciniak
can you tell me what it will indicate if the deaths go to zero, but people
are still falling ill with corona, and indeed if infection rates go up
Which is quite possible to happen imo?
Donkeyman!
Say the mortality rate is 3% (approx.)
If the death rate becomes zero for a number of days
But new covid cases rise so will the death rate.
If one death is recorded, should indicate 33 infections
If three deaths are recorded, should indicate 100 infections
No deaths should indicate less than 33 infections and falling.( Over a period of time)
Well that’s my take, and with the death rate rising at a lower percentage rate of the previous rises recently, and hospital admissions falling ,with an extra month lockdown I really hope this is a sign of better times are ahead, and again, hopefully not that far away either.
But all these calculists agree the actions of so called covid idiots screw up all test results and predicted forecasts.
Was stated that hospital rates were falling.
But what I would say but have no proof that some of the deaths was for something else …like the flu as reported from NY
Its interesting, and kind of reassuring to see Spain death rate has fallen from April 1st 900 odd, with a continual fall to the last few days, resulting in an average of 220 deaths per day.
With signs this is a continuing trend… Also quite speedy too, just a month.
But you ASSUME that new infections equal new deaths marciniak
That is not neccassarily so is it?
For example, it has been accepted that the majority of deaths take
place amongst the old and allready sick, and that younger healthy
individuals will survive or not even know that they had corona,
So if this is so then eventually the virus will kill all the weakly ones
and then have no more weak victims left to kill?
So the death rate will become zero but the new infections will rise?
This is how immunity is built up in communities eventually as the
weak are weeded out and the virus becomes unable to kill the rest
Yes your take could well turn out right, but my point is that it aint
neccassarily so, and the signs are improving but l await the next
two weeks results of new infections before l will ring any bells!
Donkeyman!
Yes I am sure you are right, but I just gave the basic formula.
But with less infected ( herd immune ) transmission of the virus will be harder hopefully.
China (Wuhan ) has a huge population many of which are old age, but luckily your theory hasn’t played out there, why ? I can only guess.
But I see what you are saying,( thanks for cheering me up lol )
But I am sure given all the right data some of these calculists would have some kind of answer…all way above my head.
You should be able to estimate the level of actual infections per 100k based on the deaths per 100k by working back from the average death rate.
Thats one of the things l dont like Annie,we havento dig to get
the the new case data it is not posted up front like the death
statistics on TV?
As you can see on the link Omah so kindly posted for me it gives
a daily increase graph on which you can see that allthough the
death rate has fallen nicely for the last couple of days but on the
accompanying graph that that the new or current case trend is
still up allthough not so steeply?
I am watching this with interest!
I still question why the new infection data is not published in an
open manner like the death stats?
Maybe its to cheer us up as marciniak suggests?
Donkeyman!
Hooray! It seems that things have at last started to move in the
right direction with atrend of less new cases of corona being
reported, allthough the direction is still up.And at the same time
the deaths have allready established a downward trend!
This is good news, but the new cases need to continue going
down before we can celebrate?
I think new cases are currently at about 3800 per day in uk
whereas Japan recently published a figure of 2??
So we have some way to go yet!!
Donkeyman!
DIY face mask, made from a sock.
What a great idea Emjay, I’ve utilised these under wangers…
I Hope they are yours, and not… can’t say it, but I feel sure you know what I was going to say.
DM, I’m sure that, deep down, we both know that the numbers are being manipulated, regularly, in order to manage public opinion.
Other Countries have done it, now we are doing it.
Changing the basic parameters, every month, is not the best statistical approach, if you need the truth.
Care Homes out, Care Homes in, Other deaths out, other deaths in, mobile phone apps (Ugh!). Other Countries low (then caught lying) then back up.
I’ve given up on the daily briefings on BBC.
Do we, the public, have enough info to get a grip?
Not yet!
:shock:
Suits you Bob! 
You could be right Ted, ive been struggling to make sense of it all?
Plus passenger flights are still taking place every day and l see no
reports of incomers going into isolation? So what is going on
there?
Donkeyman!
That’s the same conclusion that I came to Ted. I have been recording the figures since the beginning of April just so I could monitor how we were doing, but the constant moving of the goalposts have made it virtually impossible to draw any kind of conclusion, so I packed it in. Could there be some ‘Social Engineering’ going on here. I could be wrong, but this whole fiasco seems like the government are not taking this seriously and only trying to pacify the general public, and give them things to do (diversionary tactics) like applaud the NHS, put posters up and keep Britain Talking, and the BBC are using their usual; we’re all in it together, doom and gloom tactics.
Thanks Mags, I’ll wear them to the Tesco in the morning and try them out…
I noticed how much the format of figures changed recently on the BBC coronavirus daily update. One day there would be the number of fatalities in the last 24 hours followed by the UK total, the next day there was no UK total. Then I found the link below from somewhere or other, probably on Over50sForum. This gives the totals plus a lot of other information and also a way of comparing our progress to that of other countries: