Can anyone give me the only statistic that realy matters please?
I have been unable to see the the figure for new cases of corona
in uk for some time now?
We are given the daily deaths, the total deaths, the number of tests
carried out, the rise or fall of hospital bed occupancy, but l fail to see
the most important figure imo, THE NUMBER OF NEW INFECTIONS?
Now they are testing more and more people surely there must be
sufficient data agailable now to announce this figure which is the
crucial factor in fighting this pandemic?
There appears to be a great difference in how some countries report cases that DO NOT GO TO HOSPITAL. The UK in particular seems to be missing many cases.
I think it takes a few days to get the results. So they may have sent off a whole load of tests or sent them to the lab but I’m sure the labs are working on them 24 hours now.
They expect this to be around for a few years, possibly forever. But the mortality should fall as the virus becomes weaker over time. It will no longer be novel and the mutations are expected to weaken it.
There is some interesting information on the link below, it shows the effects of various influenza viruses over the years and gives some surprising death rates from them, for instance:
[I]"For most people, the flu is an inconvenience that subsides in a few days. For others, influenza can lead to health complications, visits to the hospital and even death. Globally, 5 to 10 percent of adults and 20 to 30 percent of children get the flu each year and 3 to 5 million of these cases are severe, leading to about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
In the United States, there were an estimated 80,000 deaths and 900,000 hospitalizations from flu during the 2017 to 2018 flu season, making it the worst flu season in at least four decades, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."[/I]
Thanks for the link Omah, it was a big help although it took a bit of
digging to get what l wanted!
From that it seems that l jumped the gun as Annie said, as the data
from the new testing regime have not had time to percolate yet?
We shall see in the next few days if things are going the right way!
I dont think the death rate gives an accurate indication marciniak
as it is dependant on there being an infection rate in the first
place and also on the variable mortality rate, and so is itself
variable?
Whereas the new infections rate is measured,and is therefore
a direct indication of direction?
I beg to differ Donkeyman, as more tests are being done each day it is impossible to use use the figures as a comparison.
The amount of people infected each day could be going down, but by introducing more tests they would appear to be going up…
I was talking to a friend today and I was saying I think this is going to be around forever. I’m hoping I’m wrong of course but it certainly isn’t going to go away anytime soon.
Yes, that is so OGF, but l didnt suggest that testing would give
an answer , but only indicate a direction of travel, i.e. insrease or
decreas of infections? Which surely what it is all about isnt it?
I think as you say, we will see a spike in new infections due to the
new regime of testing but after the spike the increase or decrease
of infections will become apparrent?
In fact lf you look at the daily graph you can clearly see that the
spike has allready appeared!!
I think the spike was when they altered the goalposts and put all the care home deaths on to the figures. I also think that even 100,000 daily tests are a poor representation from over 68 million souls. Especially since only key workers are being tested. A much better method would have been to isolate each county and eradicate the virus one by one as the South Koreans and Australia have done.
The spike l am refering to OGF only took place at the beginning of
May and started immediately the test rate went up so you must be
talking about the big spike earlier on?
I agree that 100,000 dailyntests is a small sample, but after after a
a month or so it will be more meaningful!
BTW l dont think uk has followed the optimum path at all, but we
are stuck with it now and must just get on with it?
I am gradually getting the idea that after the world were too slow
to isolate China, we then over reacted in our actions regarding our
own countries!
Maybe we only needed to get the vulnerable people to self isolate
and left the healthier and younger citizens to carry on as normal?
That would definitely have limited all the economic upheaval??
I still would have thought using the world mortality rate as an average ie; deaths per number of infections per day/week or month, would prove the best indicator
The number of deaths should give an idea to the number of infections.
So less recorded deaths must mean less infections.
Lack of tests will only produce fewer infections giving a false higher rate in Mortality.
And more testing should show a higher number of infections, which would show a lower mortality rate.
With a mortality rate showing anything from 2% and 16% ( guess) could hopefully mean there are many more unreported/unknown cases of covid 19…. Hopefully.
With government hoping new infection fall below 1000 per day should mean (approx) 800 deaths per week at present rate
