Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election: Conservatives hold on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip ... but only just

Controversial: Politics & Govt Politics & Govt: In The News
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The Tories face a battle to hold onto a key seat following the resignation of Boris Johnson.

There are 17 candidates vying to replace the former prime minister as the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip after he quit over the Privileges Committee’s judgement that he lied over partygate.

The by-election will take place on Thursday - when two more contests will also be held in what could shape up to be a miserable day for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

The west London constituency has been controlled by the Conservatives since its creation in 2010, but their small majority gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

However Labour has insisted it is taking nothing for granted amid a split over expanding London’s ultra low emissions zone (ULEZ).

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties as it gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox.

  • Blaise Baquiche (Liberal Democrat)
  • Danny Beales (Labour)
  • Cameron Bell (Independent)
  • Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
  • Piers Corbyn (Let London Live)
  • Laurence Fox (Reclaim Party)
  • Steve Gardener (Social Democratic Party)
  • Ed Gemmell (Climate Party)
  • Sarah Green (Green Party)
  • Kingsley Hamilton (Independent)
  • Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
  • Howling Hope (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
  • 77 Joseph (Independent)
  • Rebecca Jane (UKIP)
  • Enomfon Ntefon (Christian Peoples Alliance)
  • Leo Phaure (Independent)
  • Steve Tuckwell (Conservative Party)

https://www.bettingodds.com/news/uxbridge-south-ruislip-by-election-odds-betting

Priced at 1/12, Labour are the odds-on favourites for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Conservatives are 10/1

Liberal Democrats are 100/1

It seems that the local electorate are glad to see the back of BJ and want to give “Slippery” Sunak a slap in the face (figuratively speaking) … :thinking:

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I see repulsive git Laurence Fox is standing, hope he gets trounced by Count BinFace! :rofl:

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Voters in England are going to the polls in three constituencies in London, North Yorkshire and Somerset to elect new MPs.

The three seats in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty, and Somerton and Frome were won by the Conservatives at the last general election in 2019.

Polling stations opened at 07:00 BST and will close at 22:00, with results expected from early on Friday morning.

Constituents will need photo ID in order to vote.

There are 17 candidates in Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

Blaise Baquiche, Liberal Democrat
Danny Beales, Labour
Cameron Bell, Independent
Count Binface, Count Binface Party
Piers Corbyn, Let London Live
Laurence Fox, Reclaim Party
Steve Gardner, Social Democratic Party
Ed Gemmell, Climate Party
Sarah Green, Green Party
Kingsley Hamilton, Independent
Richard Hewison, Rejoin EU
Howling Hope, Official Monster Raving Loony Party
77 Joseph, Independent
Rebecca Jane, UKIP
Enomfon Ntefon, Christian Peoples Alliance
Leo Phaure, Independent
Steve Tuckwell, Conservative Party

There are 13 candidates in Selby and Ainsty:

Andrew Gray, Independent
Claire Holmes, Conservative Party
Mike Jordan, Yorkshire Party
Dave Kent, Reform UK
Keir Mather, Labour Party
Nick Palmer, Independent
Guy Phoenix, Heritage Party
Sir Archibald Stanton, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Matt Walker, Liberal Democrats
Arnold Warneken, Green Party
John Waterston, Social Democratic Party
Luke Wellock, Climate Party
Tyler Wilson-Kerr, Independent

And there are eight candidates in Somerton and Frome:

Lorna Corke, Christian Peoples Alliance
Martin Dimery, Green Party
Sarah Dyke, Liberal Democrat Party
Bruce Evans, Reform UK
Neil Guild, Labour Party
Rosie Mitchell, Independent
Faye Purbrick, Conservative Party
Peter Richardson, UKIP

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I noticed a couple of interesting names in the lists…
Sarah Green for the ‘Green Party’…Aptly named…
and Sarah Dyke for the ‘Lib Dems’… :thinking:
Lorna Corke, the wine drinking representative for the ‘Christian Peoples Alliance’
Guy Phoenix rising from the ashes to represent the ‘Heritage Party’
Steve Gardener should be representing the ‘Green Party’ instead of the 'Social Democratic Party…
And Cameron Bell will be ringing in the changes for the ‘Independents’
I hope Laurence Fox and the ‘Reclaim Party’ manage to win for Uxbridge and South Ruislip…
:blush:

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It’s … unlikely … :laughing:

2021 London mayoral election

In March 2021, Fox announced he would stand in the London mayoral elections, in order to “fight against extreme political correctness” and to “end the Met’s obsession with diversity and inclusivity”.

In the mayoral election, Fox finished in sixth place with 47,634 votes (1.9 per cent), losing his £10,000 election deposit.

2021 Scottish Parliament election

The party stood one candidate, Leo Kearse, in Glasgow Pollok for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election; he received 114 votes (0.3 per cent).

2021 North Shropshire by-election
>
Martin Daubney, deputy leader of the party from 2021 until August 2022, was the party’s candidate in the 2021 North Shropshire by-election. Daubney is a former Brexit Party Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from 2019 to 2020, and a former journalist and editor. He finished seventh with 375 votes (0.98 per cent), losing his deposit.

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It’s a shame the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate has changed - I found it quite amusing in 2019.
After “Lord Buckethead” was challenged by an American filmmaker over Copyright issues and had to change his name to Count Binface for the 2019 election in Uxbridge, another challenger stepped into the ring and adopted the name of “Buckethead” - he was standing for the Monster Raving Loony Party.

I thought the best “rubbish” quote from that election campaign came from Count Binface saying
he was looking forward to both the hustings and to challenging Buckethead “to take part in a receptacle-to-receptacle debate"
:rofl:

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66181315

Posted at 1:46

Lloyd White, the returning officer in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, has put on his tie. It’s a sign that he is about to summon the 17 candidates to give them the provisional result.

Posted at 1:55

Lloyd White, has just said a recount has been granted in the constituency.

“A recount has been asked for and granted,” White told the venue where the count’s taking place.

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Conservatives hold on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip

We’ve just been told that the Conservatives have held their seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, formerly held by ex-prime minister Boris Johnson.

The final count was 13,965 for Steve Tuckwell, of the Conservative Party, and 13,470 for Labour’s Danny Beales.

The result, announced by returning officer Lloyd White, came after a recount.

Liberal Democrats take Somerton and Frome

The Lib Dems have won the Somerton and Frome seat, it has just been announced.

The final count was:

  • 21,187 for Sarah Dyke of the Lib Dems
  • 10,179 for Faye Purbrick of the Conservative Party
  • 1,009 for Labour’s Neil Guild

This win means the Lib Dems overturned a majority of more than 19,000 that the Tories had when the seat was last contested in 2019.

The seat was held by former Tory MP David Warburton. He had won the seat three times for the party before resigning earlier this year.

Labour wins Selby and Ainsty

Labour has won the Selby and Ainsty seat in North Yorkshire, by a majority of 4,161.

The final count was:

  • 16,456 for Labour’s Keir Mather
  • 12,295 for Claire Holmes of the Conservative Party
  • 1,188 for Matt Walker, of the Lib Dems

The final result means it’s one a piece for the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories after tonight’s by-elections. Plus Labour has made history by overturning its biggest-ever majority of 20,137 at a by-election.

Mather also becomes the youngest MP at Westminster, at 25-years-old.

So … a mixed bag but only bad news for Sunak.

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If it was not somewhat probable that ULEZ expansion would reach as far as Uxbridge and its environs, the Blue Rosette would not have won the election. Labour are missing a golden opportunity by not being highly critical of Kahn trying to expand the existing boundaries of the ULEZ Zone.

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Hi

Not a lot of comfort for the Government and a worry for Labour as well.

Labour lost Uxbridge because of the ULEZ increase in August, which ordinary people with mortgages just cannot afford.

A spectacular own goal .

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People are fickle, they moan about stuff but are not willing to veer away from the 3 party system. I shan’t vote again because they are all knobheads.
It’s like having a smorgasbord full of dangerous bacteria and trying to choose the one that will be the least harmful…

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Who is funding these social media campaigns?

This report highlights that: “48% of the accounts on Twitter, now known as X, mentioning Ulez were created after November 2022, and of those about 90% ‘exhibited signs of inauthenticity’, using generic names and with a high proportion of fake followers. These accounts – called spreaders – were primarily engaged in retweeting anti-Ulez opinions from real people or groups opposed to expansion of the area.”
Two likely sources are energy companies who have a track record of funding anti-climate change messaging and the Conservative party who had a lot to gain from this. It is known that PR companies are happy to take money to run such disinformation campaigns. It is also recognised that such ‘spreader’ campaigns are highly effective - see vaccine theories, Trump campaign, etc.

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It can’t be because they are true Lincs…? And Khan is playing the same game?

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A link from the Guardian article:

A team of Israeli contractors who claim to have manipulated more than 30 elections around the world using hacking, sabotage and automated disinformation on social media has been exposed in a new investigation.

The unit is run by Tal Hanan, a 50-year-old former Israeli special forces operative who now works privately using the pseudonym “Jorge”, and appears to have been working under the radar in elections in various countries for more than two decades.

An investigation reveals extraordinary details about how disinformation is being weaponised by Team Jorge, which runs a private service offering to covertly meddle in elections without a trace. The group also works for corporate clients.

Hanan boasted that his services, which others describe as “black ops”, were available to intelligence agencies, political campaigns and private companies that wanted to secretly manipulate public opinion. He said they had been used across Africa, South and Central America, the US and Europe.

One of Team Jorge’s key services is a sophisticated software package, Advanced Impact Media Solutions, or Aims. It controls a vast army of thousands of fake social media profiles on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Telegram, Gmail, Instagram and YouTube. Some avatars even have Amazon accounts with credit cards, bitcoin wallets and Airbnb accounts.

The methods and techniques described by Team Jorge raise new challenges for big tech platforms, which have for years struggled to prevent nefarious actors spreading falsehoods or breaching the security on their platforms. Evidence of a global private market in disinformation aimed at elections will also ring alarm bells for democracies around the world.

As a former IT consultant, I am not surprised that such software is available - social media platforms, in pursuit of profit, have left themselves wide open to such exploitation.

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I think that the point is concerning ULEZ, is that there are campaigns all over the country protesting about this scheme Omah despite what Khan alleges has happened on X (twitter)
The Blade Runners have mounted a very successful campaign aimed at disabling the ULEZ cameras. No mis information going on there…It’s a fact.
Of course there is plenty of mis information on social media sites like X (twitter) and some of it is deliberately used by the establishment to discredit any whiff of criticism about the vaccines, net zero, climate change and other whoppers the establishment want to foist upon poor old Joe public.

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People need to be made aware of how easily social media can be manipulated now.

I found this explanation of how modern software packages can create a pyramid of fake accounts to act as “spreaders” and “followers”, to latch on to genuine account holders and automatically magnify the level of publicity for a particular cause.

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The point being made by the analysts who looked into the online anti-ULEZ activity on Twitter is that only about 10% of it is coming from the genuine accounts of anti-ULEZ campaigners. The rest appear to be fake accounts designed to magnify the number of shares and retweets.

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The internet and especially social media sites are the perfect tool for both sides in any discussion…Don’t think for one minute that the establishment haven’t used social media to discredit and sway opinion…

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But here is the suspicious thing - ULEZ and extending ULEZ was a Tory idea under Johnson. It was and is a sensible change to address air pollution in heavily built up areas. Air pollution that has been proven to be massively damaging to people’s health. So action of the nature of ULEZ is needed. Plus the tory government took away all London transport funding - so the money taken away needed to be replaced by something. In short, the tories created ULEZ and the financial need for ULEZ.
But ULEZ means less people buying petrol - so oil companies have been dead against such environmental measures. And suddenly in one by-election the tories could see a tool to hit Labour with. Two significant vested interests.
And these was no ramp up of pro-ULEZ postings on social media, was there?

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New Twitter owner Elon Musk has outsourced several controversial decisions — like whether to reinstate former US President Donald Trump’s account, and if he should leave the Twitter CEO job — to public polling on the network, saying he intends to follow the will of the people. But the results of such surveys can be easily gamed by bots, according to new research.

With less than $100, one can buy tens of thousands of votes for Twitter polls using bot-for-hire manipulation services, according to the nonprofit digital rights group Accountable Tech. The finding, first reported by Bloomberg, could spark new concerns about Musk’s reliance on the tool to chart the future of one of the world’s most influential social media companies.

Musk spent months before the acquisition claiming that Twitter’s user numbers were fraudulent due to the preponderance of bots on the platform; lately he has been claiming the problem is resolved. He has said overall user numbers have gone up under his leadership.

There’s no evidence the number of bots has decreased, though. “Not only are bots flourishing under Musk, it’s now easier than ever to use bots to manipulate Twitter polls,” said Nicole Gill, co-founder and executive director of Accountable Tech. “As long as Musk continues to put major platform decisions in the hands of anyone with a few dollars and some spare time, Twitter is unsafe and open to manipulation by bad actors — including foreign governments.”

:robot: :moneybag:

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