The Labour Party would need a record swing in votes at the next general election to win a majority in the House of Commons, according to analysis of the new electoral map.
The next election will be fought on new constituency boundaries, redrawn to reflect population changes and to try to even out voter numbers in each area.
Boundary reviews are supposed to happen every few years. But previous ones have been cancelled so this is the first time changes have happened since 2010 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 2005 in Scotland.
- There will be extra seats in the south and east of England and fewer in the north and West Midlands.
- Scotland loses two constituencies
- Wales loses eight as the number of voters in Welsh constituencies is being brought into line with the rest of the country.
An analysis of these changes for BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association suggests Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority.
That’s considerably higher than the 10.2% achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and higher even than the 12% achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945.
- Any swing to the Conservatives would see them win another big majority.
- A swing of 4.2% to Labour would deprive the Conservatives of their majority.
- An 8.3% swing would see Labour become the largest party in a hung Parliament - where no party has a majority.
That’ll put a smile on Sunak’s face and a scowl on Sir Keir’s … 