Currently, some 5,000,000 are waiting for routine operations and procedures - many of whom are in pain. But the Institute of Fiscal Studies has warned there is a huge hidden backlog of patients who are still yet to come forward for treatment.
There have been repeated warnings over the length of hospital waiting lists in England. A record number of patients are currently waiting for surgery - such as hip or knee replacements - with more than 385,000 patients waiting more than a year, compared to just 1,600 before the pandemic.
Explaining how it reached its conclusions, the IFS said that after Covid hit in March last year, seven million fewer people joined waiting lists than was normal. It is not yet known how many of these “missing patients” will come forward for treatment - but the IFS predicts that their return will increase waiting lists and put the NHS under more pressure.
“Even if only two-thirds of the missing patients return then with capacity at 95% of pre-pandemic levels - much more than the NHS is currently managing - waiting lists could easily exceed 13 million (and keep growing),” said the IFS. “Expanding capacity will be the only solution to cutting waiting lists in the future.”
And the IFS said the number could even soar to 14 million by autumn 2022 - and continue to increase - if 80% of the missing patients return and the NHS operates at 90% of its capacity levels in 2019.
The IFS said it was unlikely that all of the seven million missing patients would return, since some may have died, sought private treatment or chosen to live with their health issues - but they said most will probably come forward at some point.
I’m one of the “missing” …
A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said it was backing the health service with £9.6bn to help it recover from Covid.
“This includes dedicated investment of £1bn this year to tackle the backlog and reduce waiting lists, including by increasing capacity. The NHS is also trialling innovative ways to accelerate elective recovery and enable more hospitals to go further, faster. We will continue to support the NHS to deliver the appointments, operations and treatment people need.”
That “spokesperson” fills me with absolutely no confidence at all …
I can’t see what they can do about this Omah. Hospitals don’t have capacity because staff are being “pinged” so often and have to go and isolate. I guess the last thing a patient needs is to catch covid from a clinician. A recent hospital appointment was made into a telephone one at the last minute because the hospital was only allowed so many people on its premises at one time and it had too many emergency admissions so that was that. So they have a combination of covid safety rules and pinged staff to deal with. They have recently kicked into action but it will take years to clear the backlog. Many consultants have retired anyway because of the pensions fiasco last year which was going on pre covid. Many GPs will be retiring because they are all burnt out with practice staff having to go off all the time either being pinged, covid testing positive, etc. Plus the mass vaccination has taken up the time of clinicians. It’s like the situation after a war.
We are so lucky in this country in that we do have a health service that is functional despite what people say, they are being treated and can access medical care if they need it just a bit harder than before. Other countries have been severely affected and are less able to pick up after Covid. We should count our blessings that someone is looking at trying to resolve all the post covid problems, which were inevitable after a pandemic (which isn’t yet over by the way)
“Could”?
Would that be the same sort of “could” as the warning of 100,000 new infections per day if we eased Covid restrictions and which has been proven wrong do you think?
It’s about time the BBC started reporting news again instead of gleefully hunting for and disseminating premonitions of doom and gloom which all too frequently turn out to be utter drivel.
No wonder their viewer numbers continue to decline.
We can only wait and see, getting drugs from chemist now takes 5 working days, used to be simply straightforward. Trying to contact surgery by phone no chance, going on line potluck when you get a reply.
Generally agreed re: contacting surgeries, but I didn’t say the system was perfect or even good.
And either your chemist, your surgery or both is carp then if it’s taking so long because here any script is ready for collection the day after you’ve requested it from the surgery - and it can be the same day if you let the Prescription Office know it’s urgent. And ours is not by any means regarded as being a good surgery.
As with most things though there will be differences from area to area.
Back to the waiting lists though and if such huge lists haven’t arisen after over 18 months of Covid restrictions of various types, what reasonable and logical explanation would explain the reasoning behind such a dire forecast?
Yes I read the “report” but frankly it smacks of nothing more than what I said earlier which is basically that it’s a scare story.
It certainly doesn’t tie-in with the reality according to real reports like the following rather than such guesstimate scare stories:
"The NHS Nightingale Hospital Exeter will now provide a range of services from autumn 2021 to help tackle waiting lists across Devon and the wider South West region. "
The huge wait is capacity. People are needed to do operations, beds are needed but both have to be in the same place. Administrators are needed to link one with the other. People going off sick and being pinged are one thing, but even when healthy there are just so many facilities and so many staff and some of them need holidays or weekends off after the last year. It’s going to take years to catch up. Nowt to do with politics and nothing politicians can do to fix it.
people have retired, people have left the country, people have died, facilities are still not running normally, it’s going to take years because everything is up in the air still. Had there been a war would you be asking these questions? If not, then just imagine there has been a war. It will then make more sense.
The backlog of heart patients is set to take five years to clear, with thousands at risk of dying from treatable conditions, health experts have warned.
Disruption due to the coronavirus pandemic will cause waiting lists for life-saving diagnosis and treatment to double within two years, new analysis has found.
The British Heart Foundation estimates that the number of heart patients waiting to be seen will peak at around 550,385 in Jan 2024 unless urgent action is taken.
Even in a best-case scenario it would take at least three years to get waiting lists down to pre-pandemic levels, the charity warned.
Meanwhile, the number of people waiting specifically for heart surgery is set to nearly double by Feb 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels, with the list expected to peak at around 15,384.
Even before the pandemic, around 225,000 people in England were on cardiology waiting lists for heart diagnosis or treatment, with 8,400 waiting for heart surgery.
Long waits for diagnosis and treatment of conditions like coronary heart disease, abnormal heart rhythms and heart failure are emotionally distressing and increase the risk of someone becoming more unwell or even dying while they wait for vital care, the BHF has warned.
Analysts believe there were 5,800 “excess” deaths from heart and circulatory conditions in the first year of the pandemic in England.
Prof Sir Nilesh Samani, the medical director at the British Heart Foundation, said:
“Even before the pandemic began, waiting lists for vital heart care were far too long. As this report shows, the pandemic has since pushed the NHS towards breaking point, with devastating consequences for the 7.6 million people living with heart and circulatory diseases in the UK. Delay in diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases is not just about improving symptoms, however important that is – it is about saving lives. Tragically, we have already seen thousands of extra deaths from heart and circulatory diseases during the pandemic, and delays to care have likely contributed to this terrible toll. At this critical moment, the Government must act now to avoid more lives lost to treatable heart conditions. Addressing the growing heart care backlog is only the start. We must also see a clear plan, alongside significant and ongoing investment, to build capacity back into the NHS and address the pandemic’s impact on health workers. Getting this right would avoid preventable heartbreak for many families.”
Quite so … I would hope that Amanda Pritchard is formulating a plan, even as we speak …
NHS waiting list in England hits record 5.45 million
The June figures show a mixed picture - with the numbers waiting more than 18 weeks or a year both down, but a rise in those waiting more than two years. Many have joined the waiting list in recent weeks, as more people are referred for treatment.
NHS England’s Prof Stephen Powis said the summer had seen some of the highest numbers ever coming forward for care. And he said the health service had made “effective use” of the additional resources it had been given to address the Covid backlog.
The data published today also shows:
The number waiting to start treatment is the highest it has been since records began in August 2007
5.45 million waiting for procedures - up from 5.3 million in May
2.16 million people were treated in A&E departments in July compared with 2.15 million in June
Ambulances across England answered more than a million calls in July - and waiting times were the longest since a new way of logging calls was introduced in 2017
But in signs of progress, the number of patients waiting longer than 18 weeks for care has dropped by almost 25,000 to 1.7 million.
The number having to wait more than a year to start treatment was 304,803 in June - down from 336,733 the previous month.
Most hospitals are doing all they can to reduce the number of long waits for operations.
Some trusts in England have been given extra funding if they can get their volume of work above pre pandemic levels - extending operating theatre hours with smarter use of the time available and cutting down delays with pre-op checks for patients are among the policies being adopted.
Trusts are working more closely with GPs, pharmacists and other local health providers to try to reduce the number of patients requiring hospital treatment, so freeing up resources for those who most need it. But dealing with new referrals and tackling the backlog are huge tasks. And millions more who did not come forward for treatment during the pandemic may now do so.
Prof Neil Mortensen, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said a “volatile mix of pressures”, including Covid control measures and staff shortages due to pinging, was hindering the NHS’s ability to address the surgery backlog.
Of the 5,727 patients waiting more than two years for treatment - a 46% increase on the previous month - the RCS says most need hip and knee replacements, gallbladder removals or hernia operations. It warns some may be unable to work, or carry out day-to-day tasks, while they wait for their procedures.
