Voters in many areas in England will head to the polls on 5 May to elect their new local representatives. More than 4,350 seats will be contested next month on over 140 councils.
Boris Johnson’s premiership is likely to be judged on the results of the upcoming local elections
But what would constitute a good day in the office for both the Labour party and the Conservatives when it comes to reading the results?Leading pollsters Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have given their interpretation of how we should view the possible outcomes of the polls.
Conservatives
As Boris Johnson faces increasing pressure over the partygate scandal, the local elections will be seen as an indication of what voters have made of the matter. More then 350 losses would be the figure that the Conservative Party won’t want to reach. This could lead to many Conservative MPs - in both former Red-Wall marginal seats and seats across the south - to be particularly worried. The party will attempt to write off losses of between 100 to 150 as ‘mid-term blues’, the pollsters suggest, but this level of decline will still indicate that the Tories trail Labour in terms of popular support.
Labour
Labour, on the other hand, will be wanting to capitalise on their growing popularity, according to recent polls. 200 or more gains - which would be the party’s best local election performance for a decade, would be seen as a triumph for Sir Keir Starmer. Gains of between 50 and 100 would also be seen as a positive step forward, illustrating the party has made progress since 2018 and possible even targeted some key council seats in London. However, minimal or no gains would be seen as disappointing given Mr Johnson’s current declining popularity ratings. Over 100 losses would be portrayed as a particularly poor result, shadowing the woes of 2021.
The polls will take place on Thursday 5 May with results expected in the early hours and throughout the day on Friday, with some also likely to declare on Saturday.
Interesting … 