Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 31 December 2021
Main points
To provide estimates of coronavirus (COVID-19) positivity over the Christmas period, we have published headline results in a shortened version of our usual release.
In England, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase; we estimate that 2,024,700 people in England had coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% credible interval: 1,951,200 to 2,096,300), equating to around 1 in 25 people.
In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase; we estimate that 76,500 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 65,100 to 89,200), equating to around 1 in 40 people.
In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive increased; we estimate that 47,500 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 37,800 to 58,600), equating to around 1 in 40 people.
In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase; we estimate that 135,400 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 117,400 to 154,800), equating to around 1 in 40 people.
In England, COVID-19 infections increased across all age groups and were highest among those aged two years to school Year 6 and those aged 25 to 34 years; the high infections for those aged two years to school Year 6 are more likely to be compatible with the Delta variant, whereas the high infections for those aged 25 to 34 years are more likely to be compatible with the Omicron variant, as shown by separate analysis.
Those statistics are staggering, particularly for England. 1 person in 25 had the virus a week ago. I wonder what the numbers are now, when over a 1,000,000 people in the UK have been tested positive in the last 7 days …
Even given there are no numbers included for Wales, how can you draw this conclusion based, as it is, on just one data set? The best anyone can say, IMHO, is that the numbers APPEAR to be plateauing (taking into account the data from 30/12 and 31/12).
Tuesday’s numbers will be wildly inflated to catch up with those missing from this weekend and possibly tomorrow. Wednesday’s numbers will be more accurate.
I didn’t say there was. I said, quote “the numbers APPEAR to be plateauing (taking into account the data from 30/12 and 31/12”. Any self-respecting statistician will tell you that a trend is only a trend when you have 4 or more data points moving in the same direction.