Thats my take on it too Annie, allthough this last week our infections
have started going up??We need to prove now we can in fact bring
the figures down again!
The good thing is that deaths are still low and stable which means
the old geezers are keeping out of the way and letting the others
get on with it !!
The two flights from greece are cause for concern but l see that
Greece has been put on the isolation list allready?
Donkeyman!
Ah you meant covid deaths. You said in the last month so was difficult to work out where you were coming from.
The figure in June was inflated and before they cleaned duplicates and what not, so using those figures will understate the true position, but there is a massive drop thank goodness. In terms of infections I agree with you that more testing will skew the figures.
It’s the death figures that I go by. Particularly deaths per M of population when comparing with other countries. I don’t believe we will ever have a handle on the actual number of infections. It’s far more widespread than the data indicates.
I am hoping that this disease loses its potency. I’m not sure whether that’s just being optimistic but all the measures people are taking are stopping it in its tracks.
I guess I see it as not being too difficult to keep figures down as long as people are sensible. It’s people getting too complacent too soon that will spread the bug. The masks have IMO made a world of difference because people cannot cough and sneeze over each other. Just plain common sense.
I have a firmly held view that it’s very difficult to catch this bug outside. Chris Whitty at some point said it was a near zero chance. But we are getting into the colder months when people crowd together indoors so i can see infections rising for that reason. Will be interesting to see whether that happens. Who could have known that the old fashioned habit people had of opening windows for health was so accurate.
Greece is only on the list for Scotland. Which means tomorrow we will say Greece is on our list. (seems to be how things work!)
I think “well under-control” may be optimistic.
Recorded COVID-19 related deaths are down but that may be for any one of several reasons, including:
a) the most vulnerable died first
b) the standard of hospital treatment has stabilised at a high level
c)the virus has mutated
OTOH, recorded COVID19 infections are rising - from approximately 500 a day in July to highs of 1700 a day in the last fortnight.
IMO, the infected numbers will rise again when colleges and universities re-open and again if people are forced back to work in urban environments and again when winter comes. Whether the numbers will develop into a “second wave” (say 5000 a day) or not is unknown.
Covid data for Wednesday, 2 September 2020
Global Cases 25,904,164
Global Deaths 861,251
Australia
Cases 25,924
Deaths 663
Critical 24
Cases per Million 1,015
UK
Cases 337,168
Deaths 41,504
Critical 60
Cases per Million 4,962
USA
Cases 6,257,571
Deaths 188,900
Critical 15,079
Cases per Million 18,886
Australia’s economy has fallen off a cliff. The 7% drop is for the June quarter (yes 7% in three months!) which is before the Victorian outbreak and lockdown. It will only get worse from here.
Grim reading Bruce, but I think we did expect a hit of some magnitude, and I don’t think the true repercussions have been felt or forecast yet.
I think he’s TTP OGF??
Donkeyman!
Covid data for Thursday, 3 September 2020
Global Cases 26,182,041
Global Deaths 867,347
Australia
Cases 26,049
Deaths 678
Critical 26
Cases per Million 1,020
UK
Cases 338,676
Deaths 41,514
Critical 60
Cases per Million 4,984
USA
Cases 6,290,737
Deaths 189,964
Critical 15,101
Cases per Million 18,986
I agree, as I said those figures don’t include the Victorian outbreak and its stage 4 lockdown (commenced on 2nd August) so the next quarter will be much worse. Even the June quarter’s figures were worse than forecast and unemployment is expected to be 13% by Christmas. It is a very rocky road ahead, I doubt there will be any good news this year.
Woman arrested in Melbourne for “incitement” live on Facebook. She was organising a protest against the lockdown.
Watch it here:
A Victorian woman whose live-streamed arrest for allegedly organising an anti-lockdown protest went viral has apologised for her “bimbo moment”.
Zoe Buhler said she did not realise she was doing anything wrong by starting a Facebook event asking people to meet in Ballarat, west of Melbourne, to protest against lockdown restrictions.
Covid data for Friday, 4 September 2020
Global Cases 26,471,714
Global Deaths 873,223
Australia
Cases 26,138
Deaths 737
Critical 27
Cases per Million 1,023
UK
Cases 340,411
Deaths 41,527
Critical 80
Cases per Million 5,010
USA
Cases 6,335,244
Deaths 191,058
Critical 15,042
Cases per Million 19,120
Prime Minister, Scotty from Marketing, has failed to convince Western Australia to join the rest of the country in aiming to take down borders and ease restrictions by Christmas.
The WA state Premier Mark McGowan has split from other state and territory leaders, who aspire to ease restrictions and return to a new normal by December.
Prime Minister says all the states and territories bar WA are working on a plan to open up Australia’s internal borders by Christmas, while adding New Zealanders may soon be able to fly here.
I’m not sure that allowing New Zealanders to come to oz just yet is a good idea Bruce. This from the BBC News this morning…
A man in his 50s is the first to die with coronavirus in New Zealand since May, health officials say
He was part of a cluster of cases in the city of Auckland, which has been under renewed lockdown rules
It won’t happen for some time for some time probably Christmas if all goes well.
New Zealand has had a minor outbreak with 5 cases a day (ish) similar but less than NSW (which really means Sydney). Only Victoria is letting the side down but they are under a stage 4 lockdown and even their numbers are coming down.
I very much doubt international travel (in or out) will happen before state borders are opened.
Covid data for Saturday, 5 September 2020
Global Cases 26,795,701
Global Deaths 878,963
Australia
Cases 26,207
Deaths 748
Critical 27
Cases per Million 1,026
UK
Cases 342,351
Deaths 41,537
Critical 76
Cases per Million 5,038
USA
Cases 6,389,057
Deaths 192,111
Critical 15,062
Cases per Million 19,282
Some really interesting modelling by the University of Melbourne shows that releasing lockdown too early will increase the chance of another lockdown by Christmas. Melbourne’s current lockdown was due to end mid September but will be extended to mid October
A yo-yo effect is where lack of control is achieved, causing restrictions to be continuously lifted and reimposed. The University of Melbourne model suggests that if we ease restrictions when there is a fortnightly daily case average of 25, there is a 6 in 10 chance of having to lock down again before Christmas.
The article also looks at other countries, their controls, second waves, successes and failures.
Makes a very interesting read.
Covid data for Sunday, 6 September 2020
Global Cases 27,065,789
Global Deaths 883,742
Australia
Cases 26,278
Deaths 753
Critical 26
Cases per Million 1,028
UK
Cases 344,164
Deaths 41,549
Critical 69
Cases per Million 5,065
USA
Cases 6,431,152
Deaths 192,818
Critical 14,942
Cases per Million 19,409
I spotted this, why were test kits ordered in 2017 and how did they know the virus would strike in 2019?
I don’t know if this is true or not,if it is it’s very puzzling.
https://i.postimg.cc/Qx7xxBVd/118930307-363069891518474-7228283100294034053-n.jpg
Blimey TessA, how odd…
