I’m surprised a thread on this hasn’t been posted yet… anyway, here goes !
I’ve posted many times about the Russian pipeline, Nord Stream 2 and why it was one of the reasons I voted to leave the EU. It always has been a disaster waiting to happen and it looks like the many threads and posts I wrote about in the past have been justified.
Central to the crisis is the Ukraine, but its not quite easy to spot why. The reason (I think) the Ukraine is the centre of the crisis is because of Nord Stream 2. This is no land grab by Putin…
During the build of Nord Stream 2, the Ukraine was bypassed as a country for building the pipeline (it would have made more sense to go through it). Russia, instead went around the Ukraine, upsetting many human rights NGO’s (like Oxfam) because by doing this, they deny the Ukraine transit taxes (taxes levied in Russia by the Ukraine for transporting gas over their land). At the time, the EU (Merkel) should have demanded the Ukraine be used as a transit country not just because of transit taxes, saving money building the pipeline or human rights, but to protect the EU from Russia (by switching off Nord Stream 2) should they ever try to invade the Ukraine, preventing the Russian border advancing closer to the EU.
The beginning of the disaster happened way back, when the EU agreed to have a gas pipeline from Russia. Wind forward a few years and Putin has planted his troops on the Ukraine border, not to invade it (in my opinion), but to make a very clear point.
The reliance of Germany on Nord Stream 2 is critical. Without it, Germanys manufacturing stops, and when it does, it destroys the EU (it is built around Germanys manufacturing and the Euro is basically the Deutsch Mark in a different name). The Ukraine on the other hand, being a poor nation haven’t the military might to stop Putins advance as they have nothing to defend themselves with - they could have threatened Russia with switching off Nord Stream 2 at the Ukraine Border, and denying them revenues from EU gas sales but its simply not possible now that Ukraine has been bypassed. If he wanted to, Putin could take over the Ukraine easily enough but if the EU steps in to defend it, Putin switches off the gas.
To add to the EU’s woes the EU no longer controls UK foreign policy. Because of Brexit, the EU no longer can tell us what to do in order to defend/support the Ukraine …The UK is currently shipping weapons to the Ukraine to help it defend itself. The response from Germany (not the EU I might add) has been (not to support the UK - as a NATO member) but to deny the access of UK aircraft delivering weapons to the Ukraine from its airspace - breaching the Open Skies arrangement and breaking an international treaty. Germany can’t be seen to be threatening its own gas supplies by upsetting Russia. With Germany banning UK planes from Germanys airspace it not only demonstrates Germanys support for Russia but it is having the negative effect of upsetting a lot of nations in the UN because of the pending war that could arise (not to mention NATO). If NATO got involved it would place Germany in a huge political mess, being a NATO member itself.
I personally don’t think Russia has any intention of invading the Ukraine, Putin is simply making his point. Although Putins point may not be clear with EU citizens, it certainly is now and the EU is becoming more and more divided because of it. People are hearing the horrors of EU policy and can seeing them in full view on mainstream TV news stations. I think Putin is driving this message home raising awareness of the EU’s predicament and Russias dominance.
My view is that now, Germany is controlled by Russia and that means, the EU are also controlled by Russia, or more precisely, Putin.
All because Germany, through the Paris Agreement, COP26, the Green Lobby and through political pressure from the climate activists (mostly communists like Merkel), using climate disaster predictions from the same modelling computers used for COVID no doubt, happily got rid of their nuclear and fossil fuels power stations and became completely dependent on Russias gas to survive.
What could have possibly gone wrong ???