Covid: UK government wasn't ready for pandemic, report finds

Other governments will have their own reports … Austria, as reported elsewhere, is doing very badly at the moment.

In the UK, BJ diverted resouces from COVID to BREXIT … :exclamation:

:smile: you took the words right out me mouth, Mort.

Well, we have a pandemic, don’t we … :man_shrugging:

… and vaccines are saving the world … :041:

However, getting back on-topic:

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

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Foresight is even better:

The government’s preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons for government on risk management

7 The National Security Risk Assessment (the Assessment) is a classified document that contains around 120 risks and is summarised in a public-facing version, the National Risk Register (the Register). It assesses the most serious risks facing the UK or its interests overseas over the next two years. Both documents are updated regularly

15 The government was not fully prepared for the wide-ranging impacts that this pandemic had on society, the economy and essential public services.

The 2019 Assessment recognised that an influenza-type pandemic could have extensive non-health impacts, including on communications, education, energy supplies, finance, food supplies and transport services.

The government lacked detailed plans for several aspects of its response to COVID-19, including shielding, employment support schemes and managing the disruption to schooling (paragraph 3.12).

There’s only one drawback to preparation and contingency plans …

To properly prepare how do you know what disaster to prepare for ?
Mankind could have invested heavily for the day when a pandemic arrived … and instead a major volcano could erupt instead …or another Chernobyl.

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Including ours

Epidemics and Pandemics never go away:

The swine flu pandemic, 2009–2010 (Worldwide) identified as Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 resulted in an estimated death toll of 284,000 (possible range 151,700–575,400).

You would think we would learn from them and listen to the right people.

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Topic header makes it sound like a report from the University of the Bleeding Obvious.

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A heap of bad decisions were made by the people, the Government just responded.

Is that the right way around Spitty :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

I just see people, not the chamber. :frowning_face:

The movies are right on topic. Matt Hancock had the idea to buy vaccinations in before the rest of the world and get everyone vaccinated really quickly from watching one of these movies.

I agree that Matt Hancock was influenced by “Contagion” (thankfully), but was that part of pre-pandemic planning, though?

I thought you said there was no pre-pandemic planning?

No, I never said that.

I said:

This (unofficial) analysis is revealing:

**In fact, says Celia Blanco-Jimenez (LSE), a number of plans were in place for the rapid spread of a respiratory disease. But none anticipated that lockdowns or travel restrictions would be put in place. **

Accounts of the chaos and confusion in No 10 in March 2020 would imply that COVID-19 caught the UK completely unprepared. Nonetheless, the government carried out extensive planning for a pandemic, mostly focusing on influenza. We knew that an airborne pathogen of unknown lethality was highly likely to emerge.

Numerous reports warned of the high likelihood that a new virus of unknown severity would spread from animals to humans and create a pandemic. A report from the Home Office stated the ‘high probability’ of this occurring as long ago as 2008. The World Health Organisation reported “a world at risk” in 2019, and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Preparedness for a High-Impact Respiratory Pathogen Pandemic warns about “a very real threat of a rapidly moving, highly lethal pandemic of a respiratory pathogen”. In 2011, the Department of Health said a pandemic could arise in any location, although many previous pandemics had originated in China or Southeast Asia.

The 2019 Global Health Security Index declared the UK one of the best-prepared countries in the world for a pandemic, even ahead of countries like Japan or South Korea. However, the Exercise Cygnus Report (2016), commissioned by the NHS, predicted shortages of ICU beds and PPE, and stated that regulatory changes were needed to improve the ability of the health and other sectors to cope with an outbreak, as well as changes and easements to assist with the implementation of a response. The report also identified a lack of joint tactical plans and a lack of capacity among local responders. Interestingly, the report was classified until October 2020, when it was published following public pressure.

Exercise Cygnus was a three-day simulation exercise carried out by NHS England in October 2016 to estimate the impact of a hypothetical H2N2 influenza pandemic on the United Kingdom. It aimed to identify strengths and weaknesses within the United Kingdom health system and emergency response chain by putting it under significant strain, providing insight on the country’s resilience and any future ameliorations required. It was conducted by Public Health England representing the Department of Health and Social Care, as part of a project led by the “Emergency Preparedness, Resilience and Response Partnership Group”. Twelve government departments across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as local resilience forums (LRFs) participated. More than 950 workers from those organisations, prisons and local or central government were involved during the three-day simulation, and their ability to cope under situations of high medical stress was tested.

The exercise was named “Cygnus” as the theoretical H2N2 virus was nicknamed “swan 'flu” and said to originate from swans, the Latin name for which is Cygnus.

In the scenario, participants were placed in the seventh week of the pandemic – the peak of the crisis, when there is the greatest demand for healthcare. At this stage, an estimated 50% of the population had been infected, with close to 400,000 deaths. The hypothetical situation was that the vaccine had been made and purchased but not yet delivered to the United Kingdom. Hospital and social care officials were to come up with emergency plans managing resource strain, while government officials were exposed to situations requiring quick decision-making. To make the situation more realistic, COBRA meetings were held between ministers and officials. Simulated news outlets and social media such as “WNN” and “Twister” were also employed to give fictitious updates.

Results from the exercise identified four main learning points and 22 further recommendations. In general, it showed that the pandemic would cause the country’s health system to collapse from a lack of resources, with Sally Davies, the Chief Medical Officer at the time, stating that a lack of medical ventilators and the logistics of disposal of dead bodies were serious issues. In November 2020, the United Kingdom government stated that all identified lessons have been discussed accordingly and appropriately taken into account for its pandemic preparedness plans.

A number of news reports have criticised the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the light of the conclusions reached by Exercise Cygnus. There was criticism that no follow-up document was written detailing how to deal with an influenza pandemic after December 2016. In March 2020, the three government documents available for response to COVID-19 were those published in 2011 (“Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy”), 2012 (“Health and Social Care Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response”) and 2014 (“Pandemic Influenza Response Plan”) respectively, with no revised report following Exercise Cygnus and no mention of ventilators.

I find it difficult to distinguish from what you said and the quoted sources because the formatting looks similar. Did you say that there was planning or did you say that there was no planning?