Coronavirus: Third wave will 'wash up on our shores', warns Johnson

A further 32,548 confirmed cases in the UK were announced by the government on Wednesday … :shock:

That’s 192,902 in the last 7 days * … :!:

  • This shows an increase of 42.8% compared to the previous 7 days.

At that rate, the “storm” (50,000+) will be here by next week …:103:

Just to give the statistics a bit of perspective:

In the UK on average over 1,640 people die every single day.
450 of these are caused by cancer; another 450 are from heart and circulatory diseases; and over 180 are caused by dementia/Alzheimers.

Every.

Single.

Day.

Officially just over 128,000 have died with Covid-19 in the UK since deaths started being recorded in March last year at the start of the pandemic, which is 490 days.

On average then Covid-19 has so far been present in 261 killed people every day but as we all know that number is actually decreasing significantly and currently is far lower at an average of just over 20/day in the last seven days.

20 deaths per day from Covid-19 compared to 450/day from heart problems; 180 per day from dementia/Alzheimers; or breast cancer at 30/day and prostate cancer’s 24/day, but you won’t see anything about that on the BBC.

Boris Johnson defends delay to easing self-isolation rules - but admits he doesn’t know impact

Boris Johnson has defended his decision to delay easing the self-isolation policy a month after restrictions end, but admitted he has not seen any data on the impact it will have.

During a lengthy grilling by members of the liaison committee, the Prime Minister was quizzed by Greg Clark on suggestions that it could lead to an additional five million being forced to quarantine at home after July 19.

But while stressing he was “looking at all the data and trying to strike the right balance”, he told MPs he “hasn’t seen any data on that”.

What a donkey … :roll:

Well someone should give him the data pronto, so he can read it? He is supposed to lead, not follow. :roll:

The Government sold us freedom but now seeks to ping us back into submission

Until August 16, even fully vaccinated adults are to continue to face the prospect of being ordered to isolate if they have come into contact with anyone who has tested positive for Covid.

And the more you go out, the higher is the risk of getting “pinged”, as the doubly-vaxxed Duchess of Cambridge has just found out after a day mixing in the royal box at Wimbledon. While it is no doubt a pain for Kate to be forced into ten days of hermitry, at least she has an extensive support network to help her cope. Millions of others are not in that fortunate position.

After initially appearing to be an outrider for liberty, the new Health Secretary Sajid Javid was the minister to deliver the bad news in the Commons yesterday. Rather than liberating the double-vaxxed from pinging purgatory on July 19 - which would be logical given the declining relevance of case numbers - the system would continue to apply until Monday August 16, he told MPs.

Given that case rates are rising fast – and Mr Javid thinks they may hit 100,000 per day over the next few weeks – then on the basis of each person who tests positive having had on average half a dozen close recent contacts, more than four million people a week could well be getting an order to isolate come the end of the month.

This will play havoc with the guest lists for long-awaited big weddings or birthday parties. It will be even worse for major entertainment venues – as the long-suffering cast of Hairspray have just found out after having to suspend performances for ten days when a member of the production team tested positive. The same applies to sporting fixtures – with a whole new England cricket squad having to be selected after three members of the existing one and four backroom staff testing positive.

In the context of a million tests a day still being done and positives going up fast, expect much more of this over the summer.

For instance, might we soon see a mass uninstalling of the NHS App on mobile phones* as people seek to reduce their chances of getting an order to isolate? I reckon so. Or could people experiencing symptoms decide not to get tested for fear of subjecting their family and friends to unnecessary house arrest?

I’m certainly getting rid of it … :!:

Mine hasn’t pinged since the day I got it, despite “checking keys”.

So if there is a mass uninstalling of this, and people go about their business when infected, isn’t that a bit dumb really? Just so you don’t have to isolate…you could still pass it on, even though you have no symptoms yourself? Or am I missing the point?

With 50,000+ new cases per day there will be millions of “contacts” - many will be vaccinated and/or ininfected and will be understandably reluctant to self-isolate just on the “off-chance” … :102:

This is true, yes…especially when things are starting to reopen again. Ah well…

But … the system will continue to apply only until Monday August 16 … after that, the “double-vaxxed” will not have to self-isolate based on contact … :slight_smile:

Excellent post Zaphod, statistics are only any good if you have something to compare them to.
I wonder if it matters all that much that the infection rates are rising, considering the hospital admissions and deaths are way below what they were last year for the same amount of infections.
The reasons for this are obvious, because it’s mainly young people who are affected, and the vaccines are taking effect. However, I think the elderly and vulnerable know what they have to do stay safe, and despite restrictions being lifted and being vaccinated we must not let our guard down, I certainly won’t. But I’d like to see everybody to return to work, school and university, and get the economy moving again, and it’s up to us older folk to do what’s necessary and let them get on with it. If it means locking down for the over sixties and vulnerable so be it.

:023:

Thank you and I agree with you.

The “squawkers” are IMHO doing nothing more than falling prey to the wiles of UK media (especially broadcast media) and their divisive, polarizing deceitfulness.
I say this because they never, never give a balanced report and only extremely rarely publish any “news” which is positive despite their being plenty of it - which is why I posted the comparisons above.

Again as with most things Covid-related it would not matter what approach our government takes, there are those that will oppose it encouraged by our media.
Open up and ease restrictions → wrong!
Keep restrictions & precautions in place for longer despite the rate of fatalities being low → also wrong and a sign of a power-hungry, domineering government!
:shock:

People really ought to question just why the likes of the BBC aren’t concentrating more on positivity and honesty than of giving the impression of gloating at every opportunity over what is realistically a very small rate of deaths from this virus.
As another example the latest release of weekly deaths says that in England there were almost 700 less deaths in that week than the five-year average!
I’m pretty sure that deaths - and certainly not Covid-related deaths - have not increased by anywhere remotely near that sum in the intervening ten days or so.

Those who think that the number of deaths is going to rise dramatically in the very near future will soon either be proven correct or have to admit that they were wrong and shut up.
We can as you say already see which way looks most likely with the relatively small increase in deaths versus the large rise in infections, but time will tell.

You forgot to shout HOORAY :lol:

A further 32,551 confirmed cases in the UK were announced by the government on Wednesday … :shock:

That’s 197,464 in the last 7 days … :!:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/homepage/2021-07-08/thumbnail_newCasesByPublishDate.svg

Hospitalisations are still rising:

Daily 456 Last 7 days 2,661

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/homepage/2021-07-08/thumbnail_newAdmissions.svg

Total number of recorded COVID-19 cases 5,022,893 … :!:

Eh?
So in 500-odd days as near as makes no difference, just over five million have been infected?
That’s an average of just over 10,000 infections each and every day.
Infections.
Not deaths or hospitalizations.
And certainly not that have even shown any symptoms.

I’m not going to dispute the consequences of Covid-19 in any way but to put that into perspective, despite a vaccination programme the UK sees an estimated 600,000 flu infections every year that sought medical advice.
In fact the latest forecasts suggest that flu will be a far bigger killer than Covid-19 next winter and this is maybe borne out by the most recent ONS data which shows that in England & Wales, flu & pneumonia deaths are currently ten times higher than for Covid-19.

IMHO Some people need to get a grip on reality.

W/E 25/6/2021:
Total deaths 8690 (Last year 9339)
Deaths with flu 1009
Deaths with covid 99

My bold…:038::038:

NHS Covid app to be tweaked to cut need for self-isolation

Ministers have decided to tune the NHS Covid app to make it less sensitive, amid concerns that rocketing cases will lead to millions of people self-isolating over the next month.

New rules that will exempt double-jabbed people in England from having to isolate if a close contact has tested positive – allowing them to take tests instead – are due to come into force on 16 August.

Ministers had been warned that cases could be up to 25% higher if the new regime came in at the same time as most Covid restrictions were lifted on 19 July.

The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, acknowledged public frustration on Thursday, and said Javid was looking at an “appropriate, balanced and proportionate” approach for the app.

Jenny Harries, the head of the new Health Security Agency, later told MPs on the House of Commons public accounts committee that the government planned to tweak the app to account for the fact that the majority of adults were now vaccinated.

Her comments followed reports of numerous people deleting the NHS Covid app before the government’s planned lockdown easing in England on 19 July through fear of being contacted. A user is not legally required to self-isolate when alerted by the app because all data is anonymous.

Patently, the app, which was only of limited value anyway, has had its’ day … :102:

I think this will give the go ahead for most folk to ditch it altogether, Omah, like you said. :confused:

Marked increase in Covid infections across UK

The UK is experiencing a marked increase in new Covid infections, say experts from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Latest data from swab tests in the community suggests one in every 160 people has the virus. That is up from one in every 250 in the previous week. For England, it is the highest level since mid February.

The more infectious Delta variant now accounts for 99% of cases *, according to Public Health England.

Around two-thirds of adults have now been double jabbed against the virus, and experts say this is helping prevent very big rises in Covid hospitalisations, although admissions are increasing.

Many of the infections being seen are among teenagers and young adults.

Sarah Crofts from the ONS said: “We are seeing marked increases in infections across all four UK countries driven by the Delta variant, which continues to be the most common across the UK. As the vaccine rollout continues and restrictions are further lifted, it is crucial that we continue to closely monitor the data.”

Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said the sharp increase in cases being seen had not been followed by a similar increase in hospitalisation and death, suggesting the vaccines were working well.

Bad news, good news … :expressionless:

  • So, if BJ hadn’t left the door open for the Delta virus to enter the UK, we’d have hardly any cases of COVID-19 at all … :!:

A further 35,707 confirmed cases in the UK were announced by the government on Friday … :shock:

That’s 206,046 in the last 7 days … :!:

Hospitalisations are still rising:

Daily 509 Last 7 days 2,872

Omah, do you know if the rising hospitalisations are caused by infections, or by other things? Because I was thinking, surely the non-covid illness must be helluva bad by now :frowning: