Coronavirus: Third wave will 'wash up on our shores', warns Johnson

I found this:

60% of people being admitted to UK hospitals are unvaccinated - adviser

LONDON, July 19 (Reuters) - Britain’s Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance said that 60% of people being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are unvaccinated, correcting an earlier statement he made on Monday.

Vallance earlier said at a news conference with Prime Minister Boris Johnson that 60% of people being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have had two doses of vaccine.

“Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference,” Vallance said on Twitter. “About 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are currently from unvaccinated people.”

and this:

Rates of double-jabbed people in hospital will grow – but that does not mean Covid vaccines are failing

Some info:

Gamma coronavirus variant detected in Russia, Ifax reports

The Gamma variant of the novel coronavirus, first found in Brazil, has been detected in small quantities in Russia, the Interfax news agency cited the developer behind Russia’s EpiVacCorona vaccine as saying on Thursday.

Russia faces a surge in coronavirus cases that authorities have blamed on the Delta variant and the slow rate of vaccinations. On Thursday, Russia reported 24,471 new COVID-19 cases and 796 deaths related to coronavirus in the last 24 hours.

EpiVacCorona, Russia’s second of four vaccines to be registered, was developed by the Vector Institute in Siberia. Sputnik V is Russia’s flagship vaccine.

“The Delta variant is widespread on the territory of the Russian Federation, with isolated cases of the Gamma variant detected,” Interfax cited the institute as saying.

The institute said the Delta and Gamma variants were categorised as “causing concern” because they spread more easily and can reduce the effectiveness of antibodies.

AFAIK, the effect of this in the UK has not been established.

This article is relevant:

Is UK now a breeding ground for new variants?

Scientists have warned that the UK has created the perfect conditions by relaxing restrictions - which could see cases reaching 100,000 a day this summer - while large numbers of people don’t have protection from both doses of the vaccine.

So far, the problematic variants have been those that spread significantly faster. The Delta variant, which was first identified in India, may spread twice as fast as the original form of the virus that emerged in China.

But speed isn’t the only useful trait a coronavirus can acquire.

As more of us become immune, through vaccination and catching Covid, the more beneficial it is for the virus to evolve ways of dodging that immunity - known as immune escape.

“We are probably at the evolutionary high point, at the worst combination for an escape to happen in the UK,” said Dr Aris Katzourakis, who studies viral evolution at the University of Oxford.

“The UK is in a prone position, whether it will happen we don’t know, but it’s more likely to happen here, now, than ever before.”

Thanks Omah, I suppose we will have to wait and see, eh?

All these figures are totally confusing to me.

For example, 60% of people being admitted to hospital were unvaccinated; so 40% were vaccinated. So what does this imply? Nothing is said about why they were admitted to hospital, so surely infection or the effects of Covid may be completely incidental!

All of these ‘variants’ coming from different parts of the world, apparently some are more infectious than others, means little to me. How do I know which variant I have been infected with, especially if there are no symptoms?

I could go on, but it sounds to me that no-one really has a clue about anything especially our politicians who, presumably to cover their backs, are playing it safe and telling us all to assume the worst just in case!

I prefer not to take any notice at all and carry on as I always have done: simply behaving sensibly (distancing and avoiding) and wearing a mask if it is demanded in certain places.

Well, BJ’s left the door open again - see my thread “‘Staggering’ drop in sequencing of PCR tests to track Covid variants”

Government accused of ‘dismantling our defences’ against coronavirus while insisting travellers continue to fork out for expensive test kits

Sixty percent of people being admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are unvaccinated, the government’s chief scientific adviser has said.

Earlier, Sir Patrick Vallance told a news briefing that figure was for double-jabbed people. But he later corrected himself on Twitter, saying the original statistic was false.

He posted: "Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July.

“About 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are not from double-vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are currently from unvaccinated people.”

I don’t know where you got your information from OGF but figures published say at least a third of covid patients admitted to hospital recently were fully vaccinated. The vaccines seem to be keeping the death rate down however.

Almost certainly boosters when it becomes necessary, but that has been known for a long time and as we will probably need them anyway then what’s the difference?
It’s entirely possible that we could see new variants pop up for years yet - probable even.

This is another reason that we should all be extremely grateful for living where we do and (& here I will await the howls of protest even though what follows is true) for Boris & our government having the foresight to adequately fund our own VMIC as well as other researchers such as with the Oxford/AZ collaboration and other pharma companies too so that we will remain at the forefront of the battle against covid, new variants/strains and indeed future viral threats.

That isn’t some rose-tinted or doe-eyed praise but rather plain & simple fact and while I freely admit that our overall handling of Covid has not exactly been what we could describe as “exemplary”, regarding vaccines at least we as a country are extremely fortunate.

Therein lies the problem with headline figures. The data will be out there somewhere, but to provide such detailed info everyday would be unhelpful in providing a generic overview.

Personally, I think the 40% is a strong indicator that vaccinations are very effective. Around 50% of the population has had both doses, and this 50% will be those more at risk than the other 50%. So, we’re not comparing like-for-like samples.

25 July 2021

Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today’s update is delayed.

Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK

The number of people testing positive for Covid-19 has continued to fall in the UK, the latest daily figures show.

The UK recorded 29,173 new cases on Sunday - down from 48,161 logged a week earlier on 18 July.

The number of new infections by date reported has fallen for five days in a row for the first time since February.

It is also the first time since the start of the pandemic that a sustained drop in cases has not coincided with a national lockdown.

“The data at present is looking good for at least the summer,” said Prof Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia. “Today’s figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday’s end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change.”

So far, so good but the figures for the next fortnight will be … informative … :!:

Indeed they will ( and a phrase involving use of the name “Sherlock” might be appropriate there) but just as it has been all the way through this pandemic, most of these “figures” depend upon the actions of the general public and how diligent they are being regarding taking sensible precautions.

26 July 2021

Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today’s update is delayed.

Again?! :shock:

Yes … counting the dead must be more difficult than I thought … anyway here’s a replacement message:

Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today’s update is delayed. UK figures for 26 July 2021: 24,950 new cases | 46,589,211 people have now received the first dose of a vaccine | 37,287,384 have received a 2nd dose.

Another dramatic drop … :!:

But … on 1st May we were down to 1,400 day and the gullible thought it was all over … :shock:

ETA Update:

Deaths within 28 days of positive test

Latest data provided on 26 July 2021



A further 23,511 confirmed cases in the UK were announced by the government on Tuesday … :shock:

That’s 229,828 in the last 7 days … :!:

A slight fall.

Deaths and hospitalisations slowly rising:

Deaths within 28 days of positive test
Daily 131 Last 7 days 480

Hospitalisations (as of 22 July 2021)

Patients admitted
Latest daily 945

Patients in hospital
Latest available 5,851

Patients on ventilation
Latest available 820

A further 27,734 confirmed cases in the UK were announced by the government on Wednesday … :shock:

That’s 213,458 in the last 7 days … :!:

A slight increase.

I think (in my opinion) it will continue to increase in the coming days/weeks. :frowning:

It certainly will but by how much is anyone’s guess - probably back to 50,000 a day is likely but 100,000 a day is possible, maybe more if a new variant is allowed in unchecked … :shock:

Then again, BJ may get lucky and COVID may fizzle out after reaching 30,000 a day, dropping back to the May figure of 2,000 day … :102:

In the meantime:

COVID-19 cases in Tokyo are now rising faster than at any time in the pandemic but Japanese authorities are resisting renewed calls for the Olympics to be suspended.

The Japanese capital reported 2,848 cases on Tuesday, which is a record number and 149% higher than the previous week’s average.

Public health expert in Tokyo, Professor Kenji Shibuya, told Sky News that the case load was rising fast.

“It is driven by the Delta variant” he told Sky News. “To me, in terms of pace, it is faster than we expected.”

Aye the Delta variant has got everybody panicking…