@swimfeeders , Thats ok then !!
Donkeyman! 
Lots of countries introduced similar schemes our coalition government had Jobkeeper which paid companies to keep on workers. The government also DOUBLED the unemployment benefit during the pandemic. Both schemes cost a fortune but have ceased now. I donāt think you can blame those sort of schemes for your current inflation, the cause has to lie elsewhere.
You must concede that with hindsight you couldnāt have picked a worse time for Brexit and that it undoubtedly is the reason for the difference in inflation between the UK and other European countries.
Brexit was predicted to cause inflation due to shortages before the pandemic struck so you would have to expect it to add to inflation caused by the Ukraine war etc. To deny this makes no sense.
Iām surprised that anyone is able to wish away the Russian invasion of Ukraine as āover there and nothing to do with us, not a worry, stay out of itā. Putin will not stop until countries that he sees Russian territories are back under his control. So either there is a dictator in place that Putin controls (Belarus) or he invades and puts a tame dictator in place (Ukraine - then Lithuania, Estonia, etc). The last step will be Poland. This is not a made up issue. This is very real. So every bit of aid and support that Ukraine can be given is right and necessary.
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Bruce, this round of inflation started back in 2008/9 when the banks started to go belly up and the free worldās Central Banks, with the collusion of the free worldās Governments, started printing money hand-over-fist as I mention elsewhere. Calling it Quantitative Easing did nothing to hide the fact that they were doing nothing but storing up inflationary pressures (look at what happened in Germany during the Weimar years). The only thing that kept the lid on inflation for so long was the use of low interest rates until the time came when it was impossible to reduce rates any further without them falling into negative territory (they actually did in Japan and Germany).
Welcome Strathmore to the mad house.
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Thanks for the welcome (and warning).
Iām interested in your assessment that QE is the root cause of the current inflation - at least that is what Iāve taken from your post. Whilst I can see the potential for QE to create inflation the fact that it has not over the last 12 years tells us something different is going on, surely? Perhaps the cause of inflation is more mundane immediate causes - shortages of goods and labour. And arguably some price hiking to raise company profits (surely not). These are the things causing inflation, not QE.
So where might QE fit into this, because I agree its created a problem? I suspect its a big pool of debt which will make this round of inflation, recession and interest rate hikes worse than they otherwise would have been. There is a real risk that the government will struggle to pay off its loan interests. The way out of that is inflation - reduce the value of everything, but especially these massive loans. Add inflation and interest rate hikes to ongoing goods and labour shortages then we have a real risk of significant economic shrinking. People stop spending. If house prices fall as a consequence then it could get very bad.
What we need is an effective government that is able to focus on such issues without minor distractions. Where are we going to find one of those?
I donāt understand your point. So what if it started in 2008 etc?
The point is that Brexit and the war in Ukraine have added to any other pressures whether they started yesterday or 14 years ago and the UK in particular is vulnerable because of that which is why UK inflation is higher than the rest of Europe.
BTW the Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates yesterday by 0.5% so the cash rate is now 1.35%. All this to combat inflation. It is a world wide phenomenon. The Aussie dollar is also at a 2 year low against the US dollar.
My point about QE was quite simple and only noted the fact that QE began ages ago, but serious inflation only really started this year. If QE was a primary cause of inflation (rather than an underlying factor to make it worse when it starts) then surely we would have seen inflation problems running along side the application of QE? Instead only now do we have bad inflation. To be clear, I am not trying to downplay the consequences of QE.
You mention Brexit and the Ukraine invasion. I fully agree that both of these have created inflationary pressures - availability constraints on labour and goods (plus in the case of Brexit a new constraint of paperwork costs and delays). So I suspect that you and I are close to furiously agreeing.
I donāt think Brexit is entirely to blame for inflation but with all thatās happening in the world over the last few years itās turned into the perfect storm.
@strathmore you mentioned that you didnāt think that QE was responsible because the effects of inflation have only just appeared in the last year or so and QE was applied a number of years ago. Isnāt that the same with Brexit? Our trade and economy seemed to pick up for quite a few years after we left the EU?
Look no further than the cost of energy, transport costs and manufacturing will surely suffer if energy prices rise, and this will eventually be passed on to the consumer. However, I believe that the high price of energy has been deliberately inflated.
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hi, thanks, you raise a number of points. First, I agree with the perfect storm comparison. There are so many issues being added to the mix, perhaps with massive national debt and vastly inflated property prices (both caused by QE) sitting there waiting to have an impact.
Iām not sure I understand the āit will take a few yearsā comparison between QE and Brexit. I did not say that QE ātook a few yearsā. What I was trying to contend was that QE in of itself alone did not seem to be a cause of inflation. Less about time to mature, more about what other factors come into play. Does that make sense?
As for trade, particularly export trade, with the EU - how is that going to improve significantly unless something about the trading changes? The customs paperwork is acting as a significant inhibitor to trade. A business that finds it difficult and costly today will find it difficult and costly tomorrow. Its funny, I do not recall any discussion about customs paperwork during the 2016 referendum but Iām sure someone can correct me on this.
Lastly, energy prices. Yes, these are adding to inflation.
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As an aside, and as a reply to myself (is that permitted on this forum?) there is an excellent series of pod casts about Russia and Putin. Called āthe big stealā and narrated by Gavin Essler is a truly terrifying review of how Putin and his cronies have behaved over the last 20 years. The man is a crook, a murderer and a dictator. Ideal background info whenever anyone says to you āoh, what we need is a strong leader, like Putinā
@strathmore , This current bout of inflation didnt occur gradually,it took
place over the course of about one week,when the supply of gas from Russia came under threat from the war in ukraine, due to the nature of the world
energy sales, the market reacted by increasing the price due to fear that
supplies would be restricted or even stopped ? And the price went sky high
especially in europe where they were heavily invested in Russian gas!!
Then because all fuels are classed as energy, and priced as such, there
was cross contamination between the gas and the oil markets and the oil
also started to rise in price too !!
There was and is NO actual shortage of either gas or oil, there is only a
threat of gas shortages ??
Add the habit of profiteering throughout the supply chains where each
stage of the chains add on their bit of extra profit and we get what we see now !!
I agree that QE/ brexit etc are only small contributors to this perfect storm ?
QE, as you say, has been simmering for years now but has potential to
cause a lot of damage??
Donkeyman! 
Again, I think we have a case where I risk furiously agreeing with someone!!
Letās focus on the Ukraine invasion. I do not mean to ignore other factors such as supply chains not being able to simply switch back on again post-pandemic. But the Ukraine crisis was very clearly a kick that triggered inflation. And not just for oil & gas. Also for grain. There are currently millions of tons of grain stuck in Ukrainian ports that the Russian blockade means are stuck - or stuck until Russia tries to steal it out for themselves. This appears to be an active campaign by Russia, alongside the military actions, to create a global food war. This has added considerably to the inflation story.
This is true only because most Central Banks had the luxury of reducing interest rates until they couldnāt reduce them any further. Then came the threats of oil and gas shortages, and ā¦ BOOM ā¦ inflation suddenly hit the accelerator pedal and shot away leaving, I hasten to add, some very surprised Central Bankers very much in the rear view mirror as Iāve been reading over the last few days.
And, yes, the UKās inflation rate is the highest in Europe and compared to the USA and Iām not contesting that but, on an individual country basis, there are others in Europe that are worse off than we are.
Hi
Boris was dead straight on this, all due credit to him.
He knew we would have some inflation as a Result of Brexit, that was part of his pitch.
Higher wages for the lowest paid and he has done that.
I get posters through my letter box, 3 times a week now, offering jobs.
They have gone up from Ā£10 an hour to Ā£13 an hour, a 33% increase.
Hard jobs, long shifts, 7 days a week, the English do not want them.
Inflation in most EU countries is far higher than the UK. Just bear in mind and factor into this equation, that UK unemployment rates are far lower than in the EU so if its a crisis your looking for, look on the other side of the Channel.
That must be a great comfort knowing there is always someone worse off.
Britainās economic problems can, of course, be laid at the door of Brexit. We know this because it was asserted on a BBC podcast which went viral over the weekend ā and no one would question the BBCās objectivity. But maybe there ought just to be a scintilla of doubt in the heads of the staunchest remainers given this morningās news that eurozone inflation has reached 10.7 per cent ā even higher than Britainās latest CPI figure of 10.1 per cent. Markets had been expecting Eurozone inflation to stay a little below the 10 per cent mark.
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I think Bread was referring to the thread title Bruceā¦The statement that āBrexit is driving inflation higher in the UK than itās European peersā So I donāt think that its gloating.
Foxy, Bruce makes a good observation, there is always someone worse off, and, that creates solace, and gives perspective, that should be enough drive for most folks.
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What Foxy said
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